Deepwater oil production to triple
Posted: 19 November 2003
Deepwater oil production, which averaged some 2.4 million barrels
per day (bpd) in 2002, is expected to grow to exceed 8 million bbl/day
over the next 15 years.
Addressing delegates at the Deep Offshore Technology Conference
in Marseilles France today, John Westwood of energy analysts Douglas-Westwood
also said that he expected deepwater to be the most significant
source of domestic production for the United States.
Quoting from his company's energy business studies published in
'The World' series, Westwood stated that over 100 million barrels
of deepwater oil has been produced to date.
Brazil is currently the world leader, but its deepwater production
is likely to be greatly exceeded over the next decade by that from
West Africa and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
In 2002 Brazil and the USA produced about 1 million bpd. Brazil
is expected to increase to some 1.5 million bpd, but the USA to
grow to some 2.8 million and West Africa which produces about half
million bpd is expected to reach about 3.9 million bpd.
One significant issue in increasing West African deepwater production
will be Nigeria's ability to persuade OPEC to increase its quota
and Westwood believes Nigeria is negotiating hard to achieve this
objective.
Douglas-Westwood forecast that worldwide deepwater activity will
require capital expenditure exceeding $56 billion over the next
five years. This will continue to be focused in the 'golden triangle'
of Brazil, USA and West Africa. The five-year industry shopping-list
for installations in water depths beyond 500m is likely to include:
826 Subsea Wells 242 Surface Wells 195 Templates & Manifolds
3,408 km of Control Lines 8,137 km of Pipelines 64 Platforms (mainly
floaters).
Deepwater drilling has also been enjoying good growth as shallow-water
activity has declined over the past few years. This growth is set
to continue, with combined spend on exploration, development &
appraisal drilling set to total $40 billion over the current five-year
period.
Floating production systems will continue to be the preferred method
for major deepwater field developments. Considering the period 2004-2008,
information on Douglas-Westwood's 'World Floating Production Database'
shows that 61 floating production systems of various types are being
considered for installation and 32 of these are FPSOs. Douglas-Westwood
forecast that five-year expenditure on deepwater floaters will grow
from a present average of some $3.5 billion per annum to $6.5 billion
by 2008.
"The really exciting opportunities lie in the identification
and exploitation of 'Gamechanger' technologies" said Westwood.
"New floating production concepts, new pipe lay methods such
as the 'Naturalay' floating drum system, subsea processing, seabed
drilling, autonomous underwater vehicles, etc. Subsea processing
offers a particular opportunity" said Westwood. In its 'most
likely scenario', 'The Subsea Processing Gamechanger Report', a
major study recently completed with OTM Consulting, values the subsea
processing market at $370 million over the period 2003-2007 and
expects this to grow to $1.6 billion over the period 2008-2012.
About Douglas-Westwood
Based in Canterbury, England, Douglas-Westwood are leading energy
industry analysts. The firm's published business studies, 'The World'
series of reports are used by companies in 32 countries. As consultants,
clients names run like a 'who's-who' of the energy industry and
includes government departments and presidential offices in Europe
and the Middle East, the oil majors and their leading contractors.
Douglas-Westwood is particularly known for its work for the investment
banking community and has provided market-related due diligence
services for some of the world's largest M&A deals.
John Westwood's presentation is at Deep Offshore Technology 2003
in Marseille, France at 16.30 on Thursday 20th November.
For more information see http://www.dw-1.com.
Posted by Richard Price,
Editor Pipeline Magazine
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